1) Bitcoin breaks the four‑year cycle and makes new highs early 2026
2025 did two things at once: it validated Bitcoin as an institutional asset while also weakening the “it’s all just halving math” narrative. Bitcoin not only pushed to a new all‑time high, but it did it alongside record capital formation in public market wrappers: global crypto ETFs took in $5.95B in a single week, with bitcoin products taking the largest share. At the same time, the macro backdrop moved in a direction Bitcoin historically loves: the Fed’s October 29 FOMC statement explicitly said it would conclude the runoff of aggregate securities holdings on Dec 1, 2025 (i.e., end QT). That’s not QE, but it’s a huge psychological and liquidity‑plumbing shift. 2026 looks like a goldilocks environment where we struggle to come up with a solid bear case.
Prediction: In 2026, BTC stops behaving like a neat 4‑year metronome and starts behaving like an asset with an embedded structural bid that can overpower the old cycle playbook. We think a new ATH happens in H1 2026. The non‑obvious part isn’t the number; it’s the path: less vertical blow‑off, more “grind higher on flows,” with drawdowns smaller than most expect because ETF demand absorbs volatility.
We’ll know we’re right if: (1) BTC makes highs while “crypto Twitter” is bored, and (2) the market starts pricing BTC volatility below multiple large-cap equities for extended stretches.
We’ll know we’re right if: (1) BTC makes highs while “crypto Twitter” is bored, and (2) the market starts pricing BTC volatility below multiple large-cap equities for extended stretches.
2) Stablecoins breach $500B and yield‑bearing stablecoins become a real category
Stablecoins outstanding supply quietly became one of the biggest “number go up” charts of 2025. Total stablecoins circulating sit around $300B late in the year, with USDT still dominating at roughly 60% share. And regulation got dramatically less ambiguous: the GENIUS Act frames a federal system with reserve backing and disclosure requirements. Meanwhile, even traditional finance research shops were writing about stablecoins as financial infrastructure (not just casino chips), marking the shift from “crypto product” to “dollar distribution rail.”
Prediction: By end‑2026, stablecoins are >$500B in circulating supply, and we stop talking about them as a single market. We expect a meaningful split: (a) transactional stables (USDT/USDC‑style) optimized for liquidity and (b) yield‑bearing stablecoins (YBS) that capture “cash at rest.” Our measurable call: YBS jump from current 7% to 15% of total stablecoin supply by end‑2026 (whether via onchain T‑bill wrappers, regulated MMF tokens, or bank‑adjacent deposit tokens that behave like stablecoins to users). The second‑order effect is the point: once yield is embedded natively, stablecoins become “sticky,” and risk assets don’t automatically vacuum liquidity back up on every green candle.
We’ll know we’re right if stablecoin supply keeps rising even during risk‑on periods, because users no longer have to choose between “staying liquid” and “earning yield.”
We’ll know we’re right if stablecoin supply keeps rising even during risk‑on periods, because users no longer have to choose between “staying liquid” and “earning yield.”
3) Tokenised RWAs push toward $500B+ but the real story is what counts as “tokenised”
RWA hype in 2025 got more honest. People started separating “represented value” (assets referenced by tokens) from “distributed value” (assets actually issued/settled in token form). RWA.xyz’s dashboard put that distinction in numbers: roughly $407.9B represented versus about $18.9B distributed in late 2025. Tokenised Treasuries became the flagship product and big-name institutions moved from pilots to products: J.P. Morgan Asset Management launches a tokenised money market fund (MONY) on Ethereum, explicitly targeting faster settlement and broader accessibility. BlackRock’s BUIDL also kept expanding cross‑chain, reinforcing that “institutional tokenisation” won’t be single‑chain forever. Galaxy announced SWEEP fund at Solana Breakpoint.
Prediction: The headline number is easy; the accounting is harder; so we’ll be specific. By end‑2026, distributed RWAs (not represented) exceed $100B, and the mix shifts from “just T‑bills” into private credit, repo‑like products, structured cash management, and ugly-but-cashflowing assets (carbon, receivables, niche commodities). The real bet is that tokenisation stops being a “crypto narrative” and becomes an operations upgrade: 24/7 settlement, programmable compliance, composable collateral.
We’ll know we’re right if: (1) multiple issuers report that tokenised products have higher retention than their traditional wrappers, and (2) DeFi begins quoting tighter collateral terms for tokenised Treasuries than for legacy stablecoin collateral, because the risk model is cleaner.
We’ll know we’re right if: (1) multiple issuers report that tokenised products have higher retention than their traditional wrappers, and (2) DeFi begins quoting tighter collateral terms for tokenised Treasuries than for legacy stablecoin collateral, because the risk model is cleaner.
4) Crypto lending outstanding breaks $100B powered by non‑crypto yield sources
In 2025, lending didn’t feel like the center of crypto — but the numbers stayed big. Galaxy’s Q3 2025 lending report estimated $73.6B total crypto lending, with DeFi lending at ~$40.99B outstanding. At the same time, Ethereum still dominated the base layer of DeFi collateral and deposits, which is exactly why “share shift” is a live bet rather than a settled one. Solana and others kept building real lending surfaces too: DeFiLlama shows Solana total borrowed around $2B, proof that “alt‑chain lending” isn’t just theoretical anymore.
Prediction: By end‑2026, total outstanding crypto loans doubles from current $30b to $60b, but not because we invent new leverage loops — because we diversify the source of yield and credit demand. Our sharper claim: 10%+ of outstanding DeFi loans will sit on Solana mainnet (currently ~3-5%). The mechanism: (1) RWA‑linked yield vaults become major deposit sinks, (2) credit underwriting gets slightly more “TradFi shaped,” and (3) chains that are fast/cheap enough for active risk management win share on the wave of synergy with payment providers that will naturally gravitate towards high-throughput more and more.
We’ll know we’re right if lending growth happens even in periods when token prices chop — i.e., when the “business of credit” decouples from the “business of speculation.”
We’ll know we’re right if lending growth happens even in periods when token prices chop — i.e., when the “business of credit” decouples from the “business of speculation.”
5) Solana perps finally look structurally ready and on‑L1 OI clears $5B
Solana perpetuals posted strong volume growth in 2025, hitting ~$40.7B in 30-day trading volume and ~$426M in open interest by year-end (DeFiLlama), signalling robust adoption but still early maturity compared to leading venues like Hyperliquid. A key microstructure bottleneck emerged in the form of adverse selection for market makers. In Solana's fast but unpredictable ordering environment, informed traders often picked off stale quotes before makers could update or cancel them, forcing wider spreads, shallower liquidity, and poorer execution overall.
Jito's Block Assembly Marketplace (BAM), launched in 2025, is set to address this through programmable blockspace and application-controlled execution plugins enabling custom rules like cancellation priority, transaction batching, or speed bumps to enhance predictability and encourage tighter quoting. Meanwhile, venues like Bulk (with validator-embedded orderbooks) and Phoenix (pioneering hybrid models blending traditional orderbooks with proprietary AMM-style mechanics) independently explored the design space to merge transparent price discovery with adaptive, just-in-time liquidity, further mitigating adverse selection risks, minimising slippage during congestion, and propelling Solana toward professional-grade derivatives infrastructure.
Prediction: In 2026, we get the first time Solana perps feel like they have redundant, competitive market structure rather than “a few apps that some actors use.” Our measurable call: >$5B open interest across on‑L1 perps venues (Drift/Phoenix/Bulk/others), sustained - not just a one‑day spike. The deeper bet: as execution becomes more deterministic (better blockspace markets, better routing, better matching models), the marginal trader stops caring whether they’re on a CEX or onchain, because spreads and fill quality converge.
We’ll know we’re right if the “best execution” conversation flips: instead of asking whether onchain can match CEXs, traders start asking which CEXs can match the onchain routing + execution stack.
6) SOL ETFs don’t just happen - they outperform ETH ETFs on flows‑to‑market‑cap
2025 wasn’t just “ETFs exist.” The regulatory machine actually changed shape. The SEC approved generic listing standards for commodity-based trust shares in September 2025, explicitly aiming to streamline access and reduce barriers. Solana received a major boost when Bitwise launched the first U.S. spot Solana ETF (BSOL) on October 28, 2025, attracting approximately $420 million in assets during its debut week. From September onward, SOL ETF inflows began outperforming ETH on a relative-to-market-cap basis (0.12% for SOL vs. 0.04% for ETH). This trend persisted through the year, culminating in November when Solana was the only major asset to record positive net flows (0.52% monthly flows relative to market cap, compared to -0.17% for BTC and -0.04% for ETH), according to Blockworks data.
Prediction: In 2026, SOL ETFs beat ETH ETFs on the more interesting metric: net flows as a % of underlying market cap (and we think the ratio is meaningfully higher, not marginally). Why? ETH already has a mature holder base and a more “portfolio allocation” buyer; SOL has a larger “growth + usage” buyer and (crucially) a narrative that still surprises institutions when the product is packaged cleanly. Our measurable call: SOL ETF net inflows / SOL market cap ≥ 2x ETH ETF net inflows / ETH market cap over 2026. We’ll know we’re right if: (1) allocators treat SOL as a “high‑beta smart contract index” and (2) ETH ETFs see steady but less exciting incremental allocations, while SOL ETFs get bursty “new sleeve” launches.
Prediction: In 2026, SOL ETFs will experience explosive AUM growth, reaching $10 billion cumulatively (from the current ~$700M base). This would achieve rough parity with ETH ETFs (currently ~$13B, likely to grow further) on an absolute basis—or represent significant catch-up when adjusted for SOL's smaller starting point and market cap. Why? ETH's ETF category is now more mature, with a holder base skewed toward steady "portfolio allocation" buyers and incremental flows. In contrast, SOL benefits from a stronger "growth + usage" narrative, appealing to institutions discovering its ecosystem advantages when accessed via clean, regulated products like staking-enabled ETFs.
We’ll know we’re right if: (1) allocators increasingly view SOL as a “high-beta smart contract play” with compelling on-chain activity and staking yields, and (2) SOL ETFs attract bursty “new sleeve” allocations from institutions, while ETH sees more predictable but slower growth.
7) Onchain spot volume becomes the primary venue and 3 more L1 pairs follow SOL-USD
2025 did real damage to the assumption that “spot belongs on CEXs.” CoinGecko highlighted that the DEX‑to‑CEX spot ratio hit 18.7% in January 2025, driven by a Solana‑led surge, and that DEX spot volume reached $413.75B at the high point. (CoinGecko) Syndica noted Solana DEXes surpassed $1T in cumulative volume in H1 2025, with H1 activity exceeding the prior two half‑years combined. (Syndica) And the microstructure got weirder (in a good way): Solana’s “prop AMM” phenomenon became real enough that Blockworks data (via a public post) cited prop AMMs processing ~53% of SOL‑stablecoin DEX volumes in a recent week. (LinkedIn) On the mainstream side, headlines started appearing claiming Solana onchain venues were out‑trading major CEX venues in specific windows. (Helius)
2025 decisively challenged the notion that “spot trading belongs on CEXs.” The DEX-to-CEX spot volume ratio began the year at around 15%, surged to new highs (peaking above 30% in certain months), and has sustained levels around 25-30% through late 2025, per Blockworks and CoinGecko data. Syndica noted that Solana DEXes surpassed $1T in cumulative volume in H1 2025, with H1 activity exceeding the prior two half-years combined. The shift grew even more pronounced in core pairs: SOL-USD trading powered by proprietary AMMs now sees higher onchain volume on Solana DEXes and prop AMMs than on major CEXs. In recent periods, Solana's onchain SOL-USD volume has exceeded the combined spot volume on Coinbase and Binance (per Artemis and Blockworks data), while prop AMMs alone process ~60% or more of SOL-stablecoin DEX volumes in key weeks, cementing Solana as crypto's emerging liquidity layer.
Prediction: SOL‑USD stays the only L1 coin where onchain spot volume convincingly leads CEX spot volume through 2025, but in 2026, three more L1‑stable pairs cross that threshold and it will happen on Solana as its market structure keeps evolving. The logic is execution, not culture: chains that can support ultra‑tight quoting plus aggregation (and don’t drown users in fees) will win spot share, especially when wallets embed routing the way browsers embed search.
We’ll know we’re right if “where price discovery happens” starts being answered with a router rather than an exchange, and if CEXs increasingly become fiat on/off ramps + margin engines while spot migrates onchain.
8) Kalshi open interest goes >$1B as event markets get tokenised
Kalshi was one of the clearest “new asset class” stories of late 2025. MarketWatch reported that Kalshi traded about $5.8B in November 2025, and that roughly 91% was sports-related, which matters because sports creates repeatable, high‑frequency event inventory. Kalshi then raised $1B and hit an $11B valuation in early December 2025, capturing the sense that prediction markets were becoming institutionally legible. At the same time, the regulatory posture stayed messy: major reporting described pushback around whether these markets function like regulated derivatives or like unregulated sports betting.
Prediction: In 2026, Kalshi open interest clears $1B (up 3x from the current $350m) — and the bigger story is distribution, not product. We expect event markets to show up where crypto already lives: wallets, routers, “one‑tap” frontends, and tokenised wrappers that make contracts composable. Concretely: we think 20%+ of Kalshi’s incremental OI in 2026 is driven by “embedded distribution” (partners, APIs, and frontends that don’t feel like “going to Kalshi,” they feel like “tapping a market”) on Solana. The market is underpricing how quickly distribution channels can rewrite demand curves once the underlying venue is liquid and legally operable.
We’ll know we’re right if event positions start being used as collateral (even informally) and if “trading the news” increasingly means trading an outcome market, not a perp.
9) Futarchy model becomes much more recognised after 2025’s DAO messes
2025 gave governance maximal ammunition against itself. The recurring theme: “tokens often don’t capture the upside they think they do.”
Axelar token holders learned this the hard way when Circle acquired Axelar’s core developer team and proprietary IP in December 2025, explicitly excluding the Axelar Foundation and AXL token from any deal proceeds - sparking widespread backlash over misaligned incentives.
A similar pattern emerged at Tensor on Solana: Coinbase acquired Vector.fun (the high-volume trading app built by Tensor’s founders and Labs) in November 2025, with the team joining Coinbase while the Tensor Foundation, NFT marketplace, and TNSR token remained independent, redirecting future fees to the treasury but leaving token holders without direct upside from the acquisition premium.
Above all, Aave’s late-2025 governance crisis crystallised the issue. A bitter public dispute erupted between the Aave DAO and Aave Labs over control of brand assets, domains, social channels, and frontend revenue - triggered by Labs’ integration of CoW Swap, which allegedly diverted ~$10M in annualised fees away from the DAO treasury. Accusations of “stealth privatisation,” rushed holiday-season votes, and procedural chaos led to sharp token selloffs, highlighting the deep tension between decentralized tokenholder governance and centralised development teams.
Separately, Galaxy Research’s 2026 predictions quantified a counter-trend starting point: roughly $47M in DAO treasuries currently governed exclusively by futarchy on MetaDAO, with a bold call for dramatic growth in market-based decision-making.
Prediction: By end‑2026, ownership coins (futarchy-led, MetaDAO‑style) become the “default serious DAO design” for the new-coming organisations and startups that actually want onchain governance to be credible. We’ll take Galaxy’s benchmark and push it into a bolder framing: MetaDAO ownership coins' aggregate market cap exceeds 1b at some point in 2026. The forcing function is social, not technical: after enough “DAO theatre” incidents, credible teams will pre‑commit to governance structures that (a) make capture harder and (b) produce legible outcomes (capital allocation, hiring, product direction).
We’ll know we’re right if major protocols start launching new sub‑DAOs or product lines under futarchy first because it’s easier than reforming an entrenched token‑vote system.
10) DePIN rerates on revenue — and regulatory clarity unlocks real enterprise participation
DePIN in 2025 was the uncomfortable middle: a lot of real building, and a lot of market disappointment. On the regulatory front, though, the year was historic. The SEC issued a no‑action letter for DoubleZero, and Commissioner Hester Peirce explicitly framed it as an opportunity to foster innovation without overreach. The SEC followed with a no‑action response for Fuse Crypto Limited in November 2025. On fundamentals, projects like Helium showed measurable traction: Messari’s State of Helium Q3 2025 reported $18.3M annualised revenue and 461,500+ Helium Mobile accounts as of Sept 30, 2025. But token prices still got crushed: Messari’s DePIN sector table showed a ~‑58.55% YTD change.
Prediction: Bull-posting about DePIN revenues till morale improves. 2026 is when DePIN’s “revenue credibility” finally overpowers the reflex to treat it like a narrative trade. Our measurable call: onchain‑verifiable DePIN revenues exceeds $100M annualised ($57.6m now; and importantly, it becomes auditable and comparable across networks). The catalyst isn’t a new DePIN meme; it’s compliance clarity plus enterprise willingness to participate once the legal risk is lower and revenue accounting is cleaner.
We’ll know we’re right if corporate partnerships stop being “press release integrations” and start being “material revenue lines,” and if DePIN token design shifts toward buybacks/burns/fee capture that can be reconciled onchain without storytelling.
Bonus Predictions
A Brand-New Trading Modality Emerges Beyond PropAMMs
After propAMMs defined 2025 innovation, 2026 will bring an entirely new crypto-native trading modality that once again challenges the assumption that traditional orderbooks are optimal. Maybe we will think propAMMs are a thing of the past, too. Whether through intent-based systems, prediction-linked liquidity, or another unforeseen mechanism, this breakthrough will remind the market that crypto’s edge lies in continuous structural invention, not merely replicating TradFi practices.
After propAMMs defined 2025 innovation, 2026 will bring an entirely new crypto-native trading modality that once again challenges the assumption that traditional orderbooks are optimal. Maybe we will think propAMMs are a thing of the past, too. Whether through intent-based systems, prediction-linked liquidity, or another unforeseen mechanism, this breakthrough will remind the market that crypto’s edge lies in continuous structural invention, not merely replicating TradFi practices.
A Breakthrough Consumer App Emerges Suddenly on a Low-Mindshare Chain
In 2026, a viral consumer app blending social discovery, mini-games, tokenised content, or seamless trading will explode out of nowhere on a blockchain with minimal current mindshare, such as Aptos, Sui, Avalanche, Near, or a revived older L1. Leveraging low fees, specialized tooling, and great bizdev, it will onboard thousands of users in weeks through relentless network effects and superior UX. It will be faded for long. Then it will stay. Then it will migrate to either Base or Solana.
In 2026, a viral consumer app blending social discovery, mini-games, tokenised content, or seamless trading will explode out of nowhere on a blockchain with minimal current mindshare, such as Aptos, Sui, Avalanche, Near, or a revived older L1. Leveraging low fees, specialized tooling, and great bizdev, it will onboard thousands of users in weeks through relentless network effects and superior UX. It will be faded for long. Then it will stay. Then it will migrate to either Base or Solana.
The Memecoin Meta Reborn as a New Form of Gambling
In 2026, the market will be forcefully reminded once again that a massive portion of crypto activity is gambling. Degeneracy will once again repackage itself into an entirely new, highly addictive format distinct from today's memecoin pumps, Ore mining lotteries, or Collector Crypt's Pokémon-card battles. This next iteration - whether ultra-fast prediction leagues, collectible combat arenas, social risk games, or a mechanic we can't yet imagine - will command billions in turnover as participants seek ever-fresher thrills.
Going Forward
Looking ahead beyond 2026, crypto will feel less and less like the violent four-year rollercoaster of old and more like a steady, compounding machine; driven not by halving countdowns or macro panic cycles, but by quieter, relentless undercurrents. AI integration across infrastructure, data markets, and agent economies will provide continuous demand; real-world tokenisation and institutional pipelines will deliver predictable inflows; verifiable revenue from DePINs and diversified yield will compound linearly rather than explode and crash. The era of sharp, synchronised booms and busts is giving way to a more mature, directional grind - volatile still, but trending upward on structural forces rather than speculative waves.